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Thinking in Probabilities

Thinking in Probabilities

thinking-in-probabilitiesA good part of life can be thought of as a very complicated relationship of probabilities. Sometimes the odds are in your favor, and sometimes they’re not. Many times you can help tip the odds in your favor by doing certain things. This doesn’t ensure you will always come out ahead and win, but it at least gives you a better chance at doing so. When the odds are in your favor, the only thing you really know is that the end result of you winning is more likely to occur.

What do you mean, win?
Before going any further, lets more fully define the meaning of “win” in regards to this article. When I say win, what I’m mostly referring to is you getting what you want. That’s it. It can be just about any situation from passing a class, getting a job you desire, or winning a new sports car. Of course, situations where you really lose when you win aren’t being put into this equation. These are situations such as if you win and get the new job, and then end up disliking it. Or if you win and get the sports car, and then shortly thereafter to go into debt from speeding tickets. For the sake of simplicity, situations such as these are excluded from this articles definition of “win”.

So then, what does it take to optimize your chances of winning? Well, for starters you’ll usually want the odds to be in your favor to begin with. If they aren’t that’s still okay though since you can often alter them through your actions. You do this by doing things that will increase your chances of getting what you want. Start by thinking of a set of things you can do to increase your chances of obtaining your goal. When you have a couple things in mind, think of the things from that set which are likely to increase your chances to most.

Beware of probability relationships
Many probabilities are inter-related, so you should carefully consider any consequences to other things before starting on your goal of increasing your odds. For example, the probability of you getting the career you desire might go up as you put more time and effort into it.  However, doing this might bring down the probability of getting other things you desire, such as finishing up other personal goals or projects. Sometimes its all a game of trade offs, and you’ll need to consider what is most important.

Keep your goal in line
Remember, the goal is to increase your odds of winning. While the desired result may be that you win or lose, what you are really working towards is only to increase your chances of winning.  This is because increasing your chances is pretty much one of the only things you can do improve the situation.  Winning or losing is the end result, and not something you can really directly put work into.  Working the balance of probabilities is the part you put work into.  There are no guarantees, which is why the goal is only to increase your chances the best you can.

While its true that sometimes you win even against unspeakable odds, this is just good luck. It can happen to anyone, at any time. This is the type of thing you can hope for, but not reasonably expect. Its mostly just an occasional pleasant surprise. Usually the better position to be in is to have the odds in your favor through planning and hard work, rather than simply hoping for the best.